今回はニューヨーク大学アスワス・ダモダラン教授のサイト「Damodaran Online」で公開されている、米国、ヨーロッパ、日本、新興国のネット総還元性向を見ていきます。
総還元性向＝（配当＋自社株買い）÷純利益ですが、Damodaran Onlineでは増資を加味したNet Cash Returned/Net Income＝（配当＋自社株買い-増資）÷純利益のデータがあり、今回はネット総還元性向と呼んでいます。
なお、分母はNet Incomeだけでなく、FCFE (pre-debt)※とFCFE (post-debt)※のものもあったので一緒に並べています。
※FCFE (pre-debt)=Aggregated Net Income + Aggregated Depreciation - Aggregated Cap ex (including R&D and acquisitons)
※FCFE (post-debt)=Aggregated Net Income + Aggregated Depreciation - Aggregated Cap ex (including R&D and acquisitons) + Aggregated New Debt raised - Aggregated Debt repaid
米国、ヨーロッパ、日本、新興国のネット総還元性向
まずは2020年のネット総還元性向です。表はNet Cash Returned/Net Incomeの降順です。
| Net Cash Returned
/Net Income | Net Cash Returned
/FCFE (pre-debt) | Net Cash Returned
/FCFE (post-debt) |
| ヨーロッパ（金融除く） | 140.95% | 88.87% | 46.16% |
| 米国（金融除く） | 120.73% | 112.22% | 64.79% |
| 米国 | 106.50% | 107.05% | 79.12% |
| ヨーロッパ | 94.74% | 70.99% | 40.37% |
| 全世界（金融除く） | 82.14% | 134.87% | 54.44% |
| 全世界 | 61.63% | 87.89% | 41.63% |
| インド（金融除く） | 46.51% | 55.31% | 30.88% |
| 新興国（金融除く） | 46.35% | 302.87% | 56.45% |
| 新興国 | 29.37% | 66.89% | 22.75% |
| 日本（金融除く） | 27.04% | NA | 19.88% |
| 日本 | 25.82% | NA | 13.00% |
| 中国（金融除く） | 23.48% | 510.14% | 28.96% |
| 中国 | 14.76% | 39.42% | 11.21% |
| インド | -12.85% | -15.45% | -7.62% |
全体では米国＞ヨーロッパ＞全世界＞新興国＞日本＞中国＞インドですが、金融を除くとヨーロッパ＞米国＞全世界＞インド＞新興国＞日本＞中国となっています。
銀行は株主還元規制があるためか、金融を含んだ全体よりも金融を除いた数字のほうが総還元性向は高めの数字となっています。特にインドは差が激しいです。
FCFE (post-debt)ベースではヨーロッパは低め、新興国は高めの数字になっています。
下表は2019年です。
| Net Cash Returned
/Net Income | Net Cash Returned
/FCFE (pre-debt) | Net Cash Returned
/FCFE (post-debt) |
| 米国（金融除く） | 98.63% | 136.63% | 83.06% |
| 米国 | 92.89% | 118.87% | 90.37% |
| ヨーロッパ（金融除く） | 65.64% | 73.92% | 67.29% |
| 全世界（金融除く） | 64.71% | 129.89% | 77.48% |
| 全世界 | 54.59% | 88.80% | 58.70% |
| ヨーロッパ | 54.14% | 60.25% | 56.15% |
| 新興国（金融除く） | 44.94% | 214.72% | 73.57% |
| 新興国 | 30.13% | 67.82% | 31.24% |
| 日本 | 25.48% | 904.28% | 63.88% |
| 日本（金融除く） | 25.37% | NA | 91.78% |
Net Cash Returned/Net Incomeの推移
米国、ヨーロッパ、日本、新興国のNet Cash Returned/Net Incomeの推移をグラフ化してみました。
平均値は米国86.11％、ヨーロッパ57.13％、日本17.38％、新興国22.30％となっています。
新興国は仕方ないとしても日本はもう成熟しているのでもう少し株主還元に積極的になって欲しいところですね…
myINDEXの実績PER（2021年5月時点）から益利回りを計算すると、米国が2.71％、ヨーロッパが3.44％、日本が5.24％、新興国が5.02％となります。
益利回りだけでみると日本と新興国が圧倒的で米国はかなり低いですが、これにネット総還元性向の平均値をかけると米国が2.34％、ヨーロッパが1.96％、日本が0.91％、新興国が1.12％となります。
株主還元の大きな差を加味すると、米国のプレミアム、日本や新興国のディスカウントはある程度はあって然るべきなのかもと思ってしまいますね。
米国の産業別ネット総還元性向（2020年）
ちなみに米国の産業別でみると以下のようになっています。
| Industry name | Net Cash Returned
/Net Income | Net Cash Returned
/FCFE (pre-debt) | Net Cash Returned
/FCFE (post-debt) |
| Real Estate (Development) | 9781.25% | NA | -69.62% |
| Broadcasting | 4384.94% | NA | NA |
| Advertising | 1216.74% | 115.45% | 46.06% |
| Oil/Gas Distribution | 1068.71% | NA | NA |
| Software (Internet) | 552.56% | NA | -462.01% |
| Drugs (Biotechnology) | 471.88% | -1228.38% | -15.61% |
| Paper/Forest Products | 234.83% | 103.51% | 105.98% |
| Chemical (Specialty) | 221.96% | 157.35% | 57.87% |
| Metals & Mining | 193.40% | 130.24% | 39.88% |
| Aerospace/Defense | 186.03% | 4472.01% | 65.46% |
| Restaurant/Dining | 176.87% | 245.15% | 59.96% |
| Insurance (General) | 172.52% | 31.62% | 23.34% |
| Tobacco | 170.58% | 170.24% | 216.31% |
| Computers/Peripherals | 153.93% | 139.60% | 131.14% |
| Environmental & Waste Services | 129.71% | 92.34% | 756.06% |
| Total Market (without financials) | 120.73% | 112.22% | 64.79% |
| Real Estate (General/Diversified) | 120.37% | NA | NA |
| Engineering/Construction | 110.78% | 44.97% | 18.12% |
| Office Equipment & Services | 109.89% | 65.85% | NA |
| Transportation (Railroads) | 107.93% | 127.35% | 88.81% |
| Telecom. Equipment | 107.42% | 96.35% | 128.61% |
| Computer Services | 107.28% | 53.96% | 57.44% |
| Total Market | 106.50% | 107.05% | 79.12% |
| Information Services | 97.91% | 70.50% | 56.36% |
| Cable TV | 93.67% | 66.96% | 48.78% |
| Bank (Money Center) | 91.85% | 85.39% | NA |
| Semiconductor | 91.02% | 131.14% | 76.54% |
| Construction Supplies | 90.58% | 72.49% | 60.78% |
| R.E.I.T. | 90.20% | 21.28% | NA |
| Beverage (Soft) | 89.62% | 91.07% | 43.21% |
| Software (System & Application) | 85.43% | 91.69% | 61.91% |
| Retail (Building Supply) | 77.62% | 58.10% | 46.70% |
| Telecom. Services | 76.00% | 67.59% | 100.34% |
| Insurance (Life) | 74.45% | 68.18% | 52.03% |
| Retail (Grocery and Food) | 72.65% | 62.85% | 68.09% |
| Insurance (Prop/Cas.) | 71.70% | 72.99% | 51.27% |
| Banks (Regional) | 70.73% | 92.21% | NA |
| Packaging & Container | 70.29% | 74.45% | 298.37% |
| Utility (General) | 68.95% | NA | NA |
| Drugs (Pharmaceutical) | 65.15% | 48.78% | 32.78% |
| Chemical (Diversified) | 63.89% | 30.37% | 44.89% |
| Software (Entertainment) | 63.67% | 106.33% | 75.57% |
| Retail (Distributors) | 62.32% | 94.75% | 90.52% |
| Food Processing | 62.08% | 60.60% | 71.69% |
| Real Estate (Operations & Services) | 60.90% | 15.65% | 16.54% |
| Machinery | 60.03% | 40.63% | 35.67% |
| Retail (General) | 58.85% | 38.92% | 45.34% |
| Semiconductor Equip | 58.77% | 78.17% | 62.79% |
| Electronics (General) | 58.47% | 81.60% | 69.94% |
| Investments & Asset Management | 58.22% | 68.39% | 29.25% |
| Transportation | 57.94% | 296.39% | 59.04% |
| Electrical Equipment | 56.68% | 55.03% | 45.74% |
| Diversified | 54.04% | 54.52% | 57.60% |
| Financial Svcs. (Non-bank & Insurance) | 53.08% | 66.81% | 65.28% |
| Furn/Home Furnishings | 51.45% | 33.29% | 28.49% |
| Precious Metals | 51.07% | 34.32% | 45.11% |
| Farming/Agriculture | 50.96% | 93.95% | 134.01% |
| Brokerage & Investment Banking | 50.20% | NA | NA |
| Retail (Online) | 46.66% | 52.79% | 41.62% |
| Healthcare Support Services | 42.20% | 39.96% | 39.63% |
| Household Products | 42.18% | 36.75% | 33.45% |
| Beverage (Alcoholic) | 39.80% | 67.14% | NA |
| Building Materials | 39.59% | 34.29% | 11.52% |
| Hospitals/Healthcare Facilities | 36.68% | 21.63% | 45.99% |
| Homebuilding | 29.57% | 25.48% | 25.01% |
| Heathcare Information and Technology | 15.39% | 12.90% | 9.81% |
| Power | 15.21% | NA | 18.20% |
| Retail (Automotive) | 14.22% | 9.19% | 9.57% |
| Telecom (Wireless) | 7.84% | NA | 3.82% |
| Air Transport | 7.35% | NA | -5.37% |
| Shoe | 6.21% | 4.60% | 4.08% |
| Reinsurance | 1.06% | 0.84% | 0.61% |
| Electronics (Consumer & Office) | -2.11% | 1.27% | 4.31% |
| Coal & Related Energy | -2.53% | NA | NA |
| Rubber& Tires | -6.04% | NA | NA |
| Oil/Gas (Production and Exploration) | -8.78% | NA | NA |
| Hotel/Gaming | -11.37% | NA | 9.18% |
| Utility (Water) | -11.61% | NA | -5.64% |
| Trucking | -14.79% | 3878.50% | NA |
| Auto Parts | -20.26% | NA | NA |
| Shipbuilding & Marine | -20.31% | NA | NA |
| Healthcare Products | -21.55% | -23.17% | -15.45% |
| Oilfield Svcs/Equip. | -21.78% | NA | NA |
| Education | -23.56% | NA | 83.43% |
| Publishing & Newspapers | -26.05% | NA | 118.03% |
| Green & Renewable Energy | -61.12% | NA | NA |
| Food Wholesalers | -61.52% | 48.10% | 5.17% |
| Entertainment | -70.05% | NA | 16.07% |
| Recreation | -83.38% | 1363.74% | 12.06% |
| Business & Consumer Services | -88.17% | -32.36% | -21.65% |
| Oil/Gas (Integrated) | -118.36% | 1845.16% | 119.66% |
| Auto & Truck | -118.45% | NA | -48.82% |
| Steel | -144.97% | NA | 37.38% |
| Apparel | -161.23% | 203.03% | 48.19% |
| Chemical (Basic) | -641.09% | NA | 463.49% |
| Retail (Special Lines) | -1922.69% | 58.05% | 36.79% |
よろしければ応援クリックお願いします
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